Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
